Active Stock Evaluation – HollyFrontier Corporation, (NYSE: HFC)

HollyFrontier Corporation , (NYSE: HFC) was trading -37.37% away from its yearly high level, during the last trading session. The last session’s volume was 2,346,639 compared to its average daily volume of 2.19M shares. The company has its outstanding shares of 174.37M. The Basic Materials stock showed a change of 1.09% from opening and finally closed at $52.16 by scoring 0.87%.

Stock’s Technical Analysis:

Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Technical indicators, collectively called “technicals”, are distinguished by the fact that they do not analyze any part of the fundamental business, like earnings, revenue and profit margins. Technical indicators are used immensely by active traders in the market, as they are intended mainly for analyzing short-term price movements. To a long-term shareholder, most technical indicators are of little value, as they do nothing to shed light on the underlying business. The most effective uses of technicals for a long-term shareholder are to assist identify good entry and exit points for the stock by analyzing the long-term trend.

This stock is ahead of its 52-week low with 16.69%. The share price has moved away from its 20 days moving average at the rate of -2.09% and its 50 days moving average returned -2.76%. The stock returned -4.77% last month which was maintained at 2.03% this year. However, weekly performance stands at 4.68%.

Insider and Institutional Ownership:

90.30% of HollyFrontier Corporation shares are owned by institutional investors. 0.50% of HollyFrontier Corporation shares are owned by insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that large money managers, endowments and hedge funds believe a company is poised for long-term growth.

Where the Level Of Risk Stands For This Stock? (Beta & Volatility Analysis):

Risk management is a fundamental process used to make investment decisions. The process involves spotting the amount of risk involved and either accepting or mitigating the risk linked with an investment. Some common measures of risk are standard deviation, beta, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk.

Standard deviation gauges the dispersion of data from its projected value. The standard deviation is used in making an investment decision to measure the amount of historical volatility, or risk, linked with an investment relative to its annual rate of return. It represents how much the current return is deviating from its predictable historical normal returns. For example, a stock that has a high standard deviation experiences higher volatility, and therefore, a higher level of risk is associated with the stock. After a recent check, HollyFrontier Corporation, (NYSE: HFC)’s last month price volatility comes out to be 2.45% which for the week stands at 2.14%. Volatility is one of those things which for many retail shareholders means very little, but it’s the basis on which stocks and are traded and the sentiment in markets is also assessed. High volatility can make entering or an exit a stock expensive, it can also exacerbate price increases and potential profits to the upside and downside.

Another common measure of risk is Beta. Beta measures the amount of systematic risk a security has relative to the whole market. The market has a beta of 1, and it can be used to gauge the risk of a security. The beta value of HFC stands at 1.17. If a security’s beta is equal to 1, the security’s price moves in time step with the market. A security with a beta greater than 1 indicates that it is more volatile than the market. Conversely, if a security’s beta is less than 1, it indicates that the security is less volatile than the market. For example, suppose a security’s beta is 1.5. In theory, the security is 50% more volatile than the market.

In-Depth Volatility Analysis:

Developed by J. Welles Wilder, the Average True Range (ATR) is an indicator that gauges volatility. As with most of his indicators, Wilder designed ATR with commodities and daily prices in mind. Commodities are normally more volatile than stocks. They were are often subject to gaps and limit moves, which occur when a commodity opens up or down its maximum allowed move for the session. A volatility formula based only on the high-low range would fail to capture volatility from gap or limit moves. Wilder created Average True Range to capture this “missing” volatility. It is important to remember that ATR does not provide an indication of price direction, just volatility.

ATR is counted for different periods, like 9-day, 14-day, 20-day, 50-day and 100-day. At the moment, the 14-days ATR for HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC) is noted at 1.40.

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